Stalin and the warnings of spring 1941
In the Kremlin, holds the reins of the USSR without sharing them. Since the pact of 1939, he has made the understanding with Berlin the cornerstone of his security, persuaded that Hitler will not turn against him so long as England resists.
Yet the warning signals pour in. On 20 March 1941, his ambassador in Washington transmits precise warnings about German intentions; the same day, the GRU describes the attack plan to him. German reconnaissance aircraft regularly violate Soviet airspace. His generals demand that the units in the West be put on alert and a visible mobilisation be ordered.
Stalin sees in all this a manoeuvre meant to drag him into the war. His obsession: to give not the slightest pretext for an attack. To appease Berlin, the USSR delivers record quantities of grain and oil — shipments sometimes leave without even a German order having been placed. When a German aircraft makes an emergency landing, the pilot is fed and sent back.
Between authorising his troops to defend themselves and to deploy, or pursuing appeasement at all costs, Stalin must decide.
Moscow, March 1941, despite the warnings Stalin bets on the pact with Berlin: should he ready the defences at the risk of provoking Hitler?
Stalin pursued appeasement, to the point of blindness: no provocation, deliveries maintained. He refused to place the troops in the West in a state of combat readiness, fearing that such a gesture would 'provoke' Hitler. He ordered that no fire be opened on the German reconnaissance aircraft overflying the territory. The economic deliveries continued at a record pace until the eve of the invasion. To his generals he declared that if anyone provoked the Germans at the frontier without authorisation, 'heads will roll'. This obstinacy would leave the caught off guard on 22 June 1941: air force destroyed on the ground, units encircled, hundreds of thousands of prisoners within the first weeks. Rarely has a leader paid so dearly for refusing to believe what his own services were telling him.
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