Carol II in Bucharest — the Romanian balance

Carol II, 46, had been King of Romania since 1930 (after returning from exile) and had set up a personal authoritarian regime in 1938 by dissolving the political parties. Romania was in a critical geopolitical position: an oil producer (the refineries of Ploiești: 6 million tons a year, 40 percent of German consumption), sharing a border with the USSR (Bessarabia), close to fallen Poland (Polish refugees passing through), a traditional ally of France but under mounting German pressure.

In the autumn of 1939 Carol II had granted benevolent internment to the Polish government in exile. From December 1939 to February 1940 came German pressure for the maximum economic delivery of oil and Soviet pressure for the cession of Bessarabia. The Prime Minister Gheorghe Tătărescu (National Liberal) leaned towards Paris and London; the Foreign Minister Grigore Gafencu pursued armed neutrality.

The Iron Guard — the antisemitic fascist movement which Carol II had crushed in 1938-1939 (with the killing of Codreanu in November 1938) — was increasingly active, backed from Berlin. The Ploiești oilfields became the central issue: the Royal Navy set up an economic sabotage mission (buying up capacity at high prices to prevent delivery to Germany) while the German Abwehr counter-mined the operation.

Carol II had to choose his diplomatic line for the winter of 1939-1940.