Chamberlain at Central Hall — 4 April

Neville Chamberlain, 71, British Prime Minister since May 1937, is to speak on 4 April 1940 before the Conservative Party Conference assembled at Central Hall, Westminster. Audience: 1,800 delegates. Live radio broadcast on the BBC. Seven months after the outbreak of war, Chamberlain wishes to reassure his party and the public on the "stability" of the situation.

The argument circulating in the Chamberlain-Hoare circle runs as follows: in autumn 1939, Hitler held tactical advantages (pre-emptive mobilisation, offensive doctrine, strategic surprise). He could have attacked immediately after the fall of Poland. He did not — he hesitated, postponed the offensive in the West several times. Meanwhile, the Allies have strengthened their defences, equipped the BEF, mobilised industry, concluded contracts with the neutrals. The conclusion defended by Chamberlain's advisers: Hitler has let his window of opportunity slip.

The question for Chamberlain is how to phrase this conclusion so that it lodges with the public. The Prime Minister, a lawyer by training, usually prefers technical strategic formulations. But German propaganda exploits simple images and slogans with success. Chamberlain must choose a style.