Latvia — Ulmanis and the ultimatum of 5 October
, 62, has led Latvia since the authoritarian coup of 1934 — he abolished the parliament (Saeima) and has combined the offices of prime minister and president of the republic since 1936. A personal regime, without mass repression, agrarian and nationalist. The population is 1.9 million, with 25 percent minorities (Russians, Germans, Jews, Poles). The Latvian army numbers 25,000 men on active service, with mediocre equipment.
After the signing of the Soviet-Estonian treaty of 28 September 1939, Moscow applies equivalent pressure on Riga. On 1 October, Latvian Foreign Minister is summoned to Moscow by Molotov. The ultimatum: sign a mutual assistance treaty equivalent to Estonia's, with the installation of Soviet military bases (25,000 men).
As with Päts in Estonia, Ulmanis has no military option. Britain refuses any guarantee (Lord Halifax indicates privately that the Royal Navy cannot be sent into the Baltic). Germany has already ceded the Baltic states to Moscow. Lithuania hesitates but cannot intervene.
On 4 October, the Latvian Council of Ministers examines the situation. Three ministers (notably , Minister of Propaganda) argue for symbolic resistance. The majority, led by Munters, pleads for immediate signature to buy time. Ulmanis decides on the morning of 5 October.
What political strategy should be adopted in the face of the Soviet ultimatum?
Ulmanis chooses B. On 5 October 1939, Munters signs the Latvian-Soviet Mutual Assistance Treaty in Moscow. 25,000 Soviet troops are stationed at Liepaja, Ventspils, Pitrags, and on the island of Saaremaa. On 6 October, on Radio Riga, Ulmanis presents the agreement as "a victory of Latvian diplomacy." The regime-controlled press celebrates the event. For eight months, nominal Latvian sovereignty is respected. But as in Estonia and Lithuania, the ultimatum of 16 June 1940 imposes a pro-Soviet government. Ulmanis appoints a new cabinet headed by (botanist, former ambassador to the USSR, secretly communist). Rigged elections of 14-15 July 1940. Latvia is annexed to the USSR as the Latvian SSR on 5 August 1940. Ulmanis is arrested by the NKVD on 22 July 1940, deported to Stavropol, then Krasnovodsk (Turkmenistan). He dies in September 1942 in a Soviet prison hospital, without ever seeing Latvia again. Restored to public memory after Latvian independence (1991): his monument is erected in Riga in 2004. His 1939 decision remains contested — realism or capitulation?
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