A Raid 6,000 Kilometers Away: The Admiral's Gamble
Admiral , 57, has commanded the Japanese Combined Fleet since 1939. A former Harvard student and naval attaché in Washington, he knows American industrial power at first hand and openly doubts Japan's chances in a prolonged war against the United States.
Yet from January 1941 he works on a heterodox project: to strike the American fleet by surprise at its Pearl Harbor anchorage in Hawaii, using the aircraft carriers. The plan breaks with the navy's classic doctrine, Kantai Kessen ("decisive battle"), which calls for waiting for the enemy in the western Pacific to destroy him there.
The Naval General Staff, under Admiral Nagano, judges the operation reckless: it diverts the carriers from the offensive toward the resources of Southeast Asia and exposes the fleet to failure 6,000 kilometers from its bases. The September war games produced poor results, and on 17 and 18 October 1941 the staff still refuses to endorse the plan in full.
Yamamoto must decide how far to go: force through his raid, even at the cost of putting his post on the line; rally to the decisive battle and wait for the Americans near the Japanese coast; or press the high command against any war with the United States.
In the autumn of 1941, does Isoroku Yamamoto force through his surprise raid on Pearl Harbor, hold to the defensive doctrine of waiting, or argue against war with the United States?
Yamamoto imposed his plan: through his staff, he made known, on 17–18 October 1941, that he and the entire Combined Fleet staff would resign if the plan were not approved in full. Unable to conceive of entering war without Yamamoto at its head, the Naval General Staff gave way; formal endorsement followed in early November. On 7 December 1941, the attack sank or damaged eight battleships and killed more than 2,400 Americans, a tactical success. But the three American carriers were absent, and the fuel tanks were spared. The industrial mobilization of the United States turned the raid into a strategic disaster over time. The famous line about the "sleeping giant" attributed to him is probably apocryphal: no contemporary source attests to it. Yamamoto was shot down in flight in April 1943.
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